Mark and I remember March of 2000 when several individuals called to inquire about our opinion of Cisco – during the two days when it was the largest company in the United States based on market capitalization. When we asked these individuals if they knew what Cisco did, not one of them could tell us. To us, that was a tell tale sign that the technology bubble was about to pop. This same phenomenon occurred last year when many were asking about oil when it was over $140 a barrel. Today oil is in the mid 70’s – down 50% in value since last year. Eerily, we are now getting similar questions about gold. Last week, three clients asked me for our opinion on gold. The feeling I had was similar to the technology and oil bubbles. Can the run in gold continue – sure it can. However, we believe there is greater risk of a correction in gold prices than an increase in gold prices. Gold is selling for two reasons. The first is the fear of a total collapse of the United States financial markets. We don’t believe that is likely. The second is for a hedge against inflation. In order for inflation to exist, you need continued growth in the money supply. During gold’s last run in the late 70’s, the money supply was growing at a 13+% annual rate. The latest numbers show that the money supply has shrunk – not expanded – since June of this year. This is deflationary, not inflationary. Such a drop in the money supply does not bode well for gold’s continued ascent.

To see this trend, click on the link below. The Federal Reserve pumped money into the financial system late last year to provide liquidity during the financial crisis. They are now taking away the punch bowl. You can see this change in the MZM index. The MZM index is a broad money supply index that measures financial assets redeemable at par value. It includes M2 and all money market funds.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page5.pdf

Getting back to work

With the unemployment rate at its highest rate in 25 years, many are asking if things will get better. The answer is yes. In some sectors it is already getting better. According to Forbes magazine, there are some businesses actually hiring: Sub-Zero has just added 165 people; Bank of America has added 3,000 people; and Cisco recently took on over 1,000 people. These are bright spots. It appears that those companies with overseas sales are hiring back first. Due to the drop in the value of the dollar, American goods are considered “cheap” on the world’s stage. This is causing many companies with overseas sales to increase production, and thus personnel. The road to job recovery, however, could be longer than expected. As stated in the November 16th issue of Forbes, “Hiring usually picks up long after a recovery is under way. That trend is getting worse. Unemployment lagged the larger economy by five months in the 1982 recession, by a year after the 1991 slide, and by two and a half years following the tech slump in 2001.” The best way to add jobs is to remove uncertainty (cap and trade, increased taxes, etc.) and entice more hiring with tax cuts for businesses.

The joyous season returning

The stock market continues to power ahead. The weeks before Thanksgiving and the month of December tend to be very good for the market. Last year, they were not. It appears we may be getting back to some normalcy. From 1926 through 2004, the average monthly return for November was +1.4% and +1.7% for the month of December. This month’s return so far is well above its historical average. This bodes well for December as well. Maybe some of the investment axioms of the past (“January Effect,” “Santa Claus Rally,” etc.,) are starting to come back in vogue.

We want to wish you and your family a very Happy Thanksgiving. We at THOR are very thankful to all of you for the trust you place in us. We, of course, are also thankful for the significant improvement in the financial markets from a year ago!

Kindest Regards,

Your THOR Team